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Grocery Inflation: Rising Costs and How To Save

Although grocery prices have slowed in recent years, food inflation is still top of mind for many. Learn which items cost more now and what you can do to save money at the grocery store.

Lora Shinn
Contributor
Updated Sep 30, 2024 in: Budgeting

Read time: 11 minutes

We dove into recently released data to discover where prices increased the most in the past several years — and what small changes might add up to significant savings to help keep you out of debt.

Food Inflation in the Past 5 Years

Over the past 10 years, food prices increased overall at an average of 3.2% per year. This was more than most other major categories such as clothing, transportation, education and even medical care. The 20-year historical level of retail food price inflation is 2.5% per year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

However, before 2020, inflation's impact on food was much lower, so the economic pain of the past few years felt more acute for many people.

	Year	Food Annual Percent Change From Previous Year*
	2014	2.4%
	2015	1.9%
	2016	0.3%
	2017	0.9%
	2018	1.4%
	2019	1.9%
	2020	3.4%
	2021	3.9%
	2022	9.9%
	2023	5.8%

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Environment: Interactive Visualization.

In 2022, food prices increased almost 10%, faster than in any year since 1979. Now, prices are still increasing, just not as quickly.

Prices are even higher in some areas, such as the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue region. Food and beverage prices in the area increased by 29% between February 2020 and August 2024.

Food at home in Seattle is far less expensive in comparison to eating out, particularly since 2010 or so. The cost of eating out has increased by 20% from January 2020 to August 2024.

In 2024, grocery and food increases should slow down instead of continuing to run sky-high. Prices for all food are predicted to increase only 2.2%, according to the USDA.

Why Has Grocery Inflation Been High Since 2020?

Inflation can be caused by overall changes in the U.S. and world economy along with seasonal fluctuations. For example, the price of strawberries is far higher in winter, and the price of eggs has gone up and down due to different factors.

Contributing factors to inflation during the past four years of inflation include:

COVID-19 pandemic costs for at-home food purchases.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak affecting egg and poultry prices.
High energy costs.

Global factors are at play, too. Sugar pricing spiked by 55% globally in 2023, due to unusually dry weather leading to lower stockpiles. Vegetable and seed oil costs from worldwide harvests can be as volatile as crude oil. The conflict in Ukraine is affecting grain and seed oil prices.

Breaking down the data and comparing the numbers to your own grocery receipts might help you understand what's driving up your grocery bills — and maybe even help you outsmart inflation.

Grocery Items Hit Hardest by Inflation

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the food categories with the most inflation between 2022 and 2023 were fats and oils (9%), sugars and sweets (8.7%) and cereals and bakery products (8.4%). The pace of these increases should slow in 2024 overall.

The items in your shopping cart hit hardest by inflation since January 2020 included eggs at 119%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Egg prices hit a peak in January 2023 at $4.82 per dozen. The poultry industry has suffered numerous setbacks over the past few years, including avian flu.

Frozen orange juice increased by 84%, white sugar increased by 67% and coffee increased by 51%. Let's look at the numbers to see where savings can still be found.

Which Proteins Cost More?

Meat-based protein includes chicken, turkey, beef, pork and seafood. Plant-based proteins include beans, peas and lentils. Meat takes up the lion's share of many food bills and most meat categories saw increases of 20% or more in the past several years.

Protein costs that increased the most in the last several years include chuck roast, beef steaks and round roast according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Here's how inflation impacted food between January 2020 and August 2024.

	Meat	Inflation January 2020-August 2024
	Fresh whole chicken	41%
	Chuck roast, USDA Choice, boneless, per lb.	42%
	Uncooked Beef Steaks, per lb.	42%
	Round roast, USDA Choice, boneless, per lb.	41%
	Sirloin steak, USDA Choice, boneless, per lb.	37%
	Steak, round, USDA Choice, boneless, per lb.	38%
	Ham, boneless, excluding canned, per lb.	34%
	Chicken breast boneless, per lb.	27%
	Beef for stew, boneless, per lb.	29%
	Bacon, sliced, per lb.	23%
	Pork chops, center cut, bone-in, per lb.	23%
	Chicken legs, bone-in, per lb.	26%
	Pork chops, boneless, per lb.	20%

How To Save on Protein

1. Buy Lower-Priced Meats

Despite being more affected by inflation, some meats, like chicken, continue to cost less overall. Inflation increased the price of whole chicken dramatically but buying a whole bird is only $1.99 per pound versus uncooked beef steak at $10.88 per pound.

Most types of ham are less than $5.63 per pound, on average. Most types of beef are more than $7 per pound with the exception of ground beef, which is around $5.60 per pound as of August 2024 BLS data.

A woman in the meat aisle at the grocery store looks at a package of meat she's holding. — Even though the price of whole chicken has increased, you'll still save if you buy chicken instead of steak.

2. Diversify Your Protein Sources

Diversifying your protein sources is good for your health and your wallet. To save money, swap out one or two meat-based meals per week for those relying on low-cost protein foods such as beans, peas and lentils. On average, a pound of dried beans is just $1.71, and a pound makes 12 servings. Beans increased only 19% since 2020.

3. Buy Protein in Bulk

You can lower meat costs by buying value-sized packs, typically priced lower per pound, and freezing what you don't use right away. Buying nuts and beans in bulk may also make sense per pound. Compare pricing to snack packs or smaller bags — and stash in a cool, dry place.

4. Choose Your Cuts

Depending on the protein source, you could save by opting for a different cut. Whole chicken is already considerably less expensive per pound. If your recipe calls for chicken, try cooking the whole bird and cutting it up instead of buying specific parts.

Which Fruits and Vegetables Cost More

Due to improved growing conditions and higher production, fruit prices have mostly stabilized since 2020, although prices for fresh vegetables are predicted to increase by 1.3% in 2024, according to the USDA.

In addition to growing conditions, seasons can also impact fruits and vegetables. In winter, most fresh produce costs far more in the Northern Hemisphere. Lettuce, oranges and potatoes continue to be more affected by inflation compared with other produce.

Here's a breakdown of how much prices of some fruits and vegetables have increased between June 2020 and August 2024, according to BLS August 2024 data.

	Fruits and Vegetables	Change
	Lettuce, romaine*	40%
	Lettuce, iceberg*	40%
	Oranges	33%
	Potatoes	18
	Bananas	4%
	Lemons*	-5%
	Tomatoes	4%
	Strawberries	16%

*Substituted June 2019 data as 2020 is missing.

How To Save on Fruits and Vegetables

1. Canned and Frozen Produce Can Still Reduce Costs

Although frozen and canned fruits and vegetables have seen significant inflation in past years, many still tend to cost less and are just as nutritious as fresh varieties. Frozen and canned fruits and veggies might also reduce the amount of food you throw away when it gets mushy or moldy.

A man takes a can off the top shelf in a grocery aisle. — Canned produce usually costs less than fresh produce, and it can help you reduce the amount of food you throw away.

2. Buy Local and In-Season to Freeze for Later

The cost of strawberries skyrockets every winter. Between June 2023 and January 2024, strawberry prices per pound increased by 46% to $3.66 per 12 ounces. As of August 2024, prices dropped to $2.34 per 12 ounces, the least expensive in years.

Shop for in-season, Northwest-grown fruits and vegetables — which should also cost less and often taste better than out-of-season produce. Freeze strawberries, blueberries and other in-season produce when you spot a great sale.

A person places a stack of labeled plastic food containers into a refrigerator. — When you do find a great deal, buy fruits and vegetables on sale and freeze them for later.

3. Buy Smaller Quantities

If you prefer fresh fruits and veggies, think about only buying enough to get through a day or two. You'll go to the store more often but throw out less food. Just be sure to keep eating those colorful foods. Veggies and fruit provide lower-calorie nutrients and filling fiber. Fruits and vegetables can reduce cholesterol and help reduce your risk of heart disease — and staying healthy can help save money in the long run by reducing your medical bills.

Bananas and apples on a wood table. — Try shopping for just a day or two at a time to avoid wasting any fresh produce.

Which Dairy and Egg Products Cost More?

The dairy and egg category includes milk, cheese, ice cream and other products. The cost of eggs is far higher than other categories, but ice cream took second place, likely due to a sugar surge in pricing. The USDA predicts that milk products will decrease in price in 2024.

While the USDA predicts egg prices might fall, there's a wide range of variability in that prediction, mostly due to how the avian flu plays out.

Here's how inflation has increased the cost of dairy and eggs since January 2020, according to August 2024 CPI data.

A person holds an open, cardboard egg carton of 18 brown eggs in one hand and an egg in the other. Stacks of eggs in cartons line the grocery shelves in the background. — Eggs and ice cream the list of dairy products that have increased the most in price during the last year.

	Dairy Product	Increase
	Eggs	119%
	Ice cream	32%
	Processed cheese	26%
	Fresh whole milk	24%
	Cheddar cheese	11%

How To Save on Dairy Products

1. Buy in Bulk

Buying milk and yogurt in larger volumes can reduce costs per liter or quart, but be careful you aren't throwing more away, too.

2. Compare Carefully

Processed cheese saw a much greater increase in costs since 2020, likely because this type of cheese uses oils in processing. Oils were significantly hit by inflation between 2022 and 2023. Processed cheese costs spiked upwards in 2022 and stayed high. Fats and oils are predicted to continue rising in 2024, according to the USDA.

A woman in a striped tank top dips a pink plastic spoon into a yellow cardboard dish of ice cream with sprinkles. — Ice cream and cheese are higher-cost dairy items. Consider these occasional treats to save on groceries.

Processed cheese is $4.84 per pound, lower than natural cheddar cheese at $5.76 per pound. However, the price of natural cheese has been falling since 2022 and may soon be equivalent.

Which Grains Cost More?

The grain category has a broad variety of food types, from staple ingredients such as flour, rice and cornmeal, to prepared foods such as crackers, bread and bakery treats.

White and whole-wheat bread, chocolate chip cookies and rice have topped the inflation list since 2020. Here's how inflation has increased the cost of items in the grain category since January 2020, according to August CPI data.

	Grain	Change
	White bread	44%
	Chocolate chip cookies	43%
	Rice	52%
	Whole wheat bread	36%
	Flour	31%
	Spaghetti and macaroni	16%

How To Save on Grains

1. Buy Ingredients Instead of Prepared Foods

It might not be the worst idea for your grocery bill or your health to cut back on prepared foods such as crackers, rolls, frozen pies, cookies and cakes which increased due to sugar and labor costs. Try making your own instead. Flour didn't top the inflation list and is still comparatively low-cost. For example, white, all-purpose flour is $0.57 per pound — but buying chocolate chip cookies costs almost 10 times as much, at $5 per pound, according to CPI data.

2. Buy Whole Grains in Bulk

Many whole grains can be found in the cost-conscious bulk aisle, making the unit cost less than purchasing a package's worth. Fill your pantry with ingredients for your favorite dishes, or just buy a small amount for that one special meal. Many whole grains don't go bad, so you can stock up and have what you need on hand when the mood to cook strikes.

Which Beverages Cost More?

We looked at CPI data for a variety of beverages. Inflation hit fresh orange juice drinkers the hardest, with an 84% increase since 2020.

Next, coffee drinkers likely noticed they were paying far more. Wine was least affected.

A full cup of coffee in a paper cup sits on a wood surface. A black plastic lid leans against the cup. A few coffee beans and a brown paper bag of coffee sit on either side of the cup. The corner of a carboard carrying tray is visible. — Inflation increased the price of roasted coffee 51% on average in the last year across the U.S.

	Beverages	Change
	Orange juice	84%
	Coffee	51%
	Malt beverages per 16 oz.	25%
	Fresh whole milk	24%
	Wine	16%

Sugar prices soared recently, increasing the cost of any beverage with added sugar.

Switch to a pitcher of fresh tap water in the fridge. Add flavor with cucumber, mint or other herbs, fruits and vegetables.

Other Tips To Save at the Grocery Store

While you can't reverse grocery inflation, these money-saving tips might help you manage it:

A woman drinks a glass of water. — Since sugar prices have risen, try hydrating with tap water. You can add flavor by infusing it with lemon, cucumber or other ingredients.

1. Watch Out For 'Shrinkflation'

Some manufacturers are shrinking package sizes while charging the same. This is called "shrinkflation," and food brands hope you aren't paying attention. When shopping, compare brands by looking for the item's unit price on the shelf label per pound, ounce, or however the food is measured.

2. Buy Store Brands

Buy store brands to save 20%-30%, suggests the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Everyday items you might find as store brands include canned tomatoes, oils, milk and frozen fruits and vegetables.

3. Look For Coupons

Don't worry about finding the scissors and this week's circular. Many Seattle-area retailers now offer smartphone apps with coupons. Favorite food manufacturers may also offer coupons on their websites.

4. Make a Menu

Create a week or few days' menus, and shop with a list to avoid impulse purchases and repeated store visits. Freeze leftovers for future meals — and prevent last-minute binge buys from a random burger joint.

5. Shop Different Stores

If you've found prices increasing dramatically at a local Seattle-area store for something you buy regularly, shop around. Investigate international stores, grocery outlets, membership clubs and big retailers like Target or Wal-Mart. You never know where you might find a new deal.

Inflation on the West Coast

While grocery prices increased in the West, the sticker shock was less intense than many other places in the U.S., on average, for some frequently purchased items, like ground beef and whole milk.

Also, inflation on many common goods didn't increase as much — but in most cases, prices were higher to start with. Prices are lower for most fruits and vegetables on the West Coast, likely due to our proximity to California's fields.

Here's how inflation changed the cost of some common items.

Food	U.S. Increase 2020-2024	West Increase 2020-2024
Ground beef	35%	27%
Cheddar cheese	11%	15%
Bacon	23%	38%
Whole milk	24%	17%

Knowing Costs Can Help You Save

It's one thing to know inflation is driving up your overall expenses, but it's another to figure out how to pay for essential items. Taking a closer look at the cost of items you buy frequently can help you adjust your shopping list and save at the store.

Percentages in tables have been rounded to the nearest whole number.